Iraq and the Law of Unintended Consequences
My cat Baby was thirsty one day. There was nothing in the water dish. Instead of asking for a fresh serving Baby remembered there was an unlimited and renewable supply of fresh water in the bathroom toilet. So he made his way there and, perching precariously on the lid, craned his neck to the fullest extent, barely reaching the surface of his water with his tongue. (My apologies to all readers who gross out easily) An instant later a back paw slipped and Baby plunged totally beneath the waves! This was not the outcome he desired! He was a victim of the law of unintended consequences. Basically the law works something like this: Whenever you act in a way that seems to be completely favorable to you and those you love, you can count on negative outcomes that are rarely foreseeable when you start out. This law is constantly at work in the realm of politics as well as everyday life.
In World War II the allies had their hands full with Hitler’s Germany. On the principle of "The enemy of my enemy is my friend" they decided to do business with the unsavory Josef Stalin, Premier of the Soviet Union. They provided aid to Stalin in the form of food, weapons, intelligence and technical assistance. And while the Soviet army was an absolutely essential part of the victory over Hitler, this alliance of convenience strengthened the Soviet Union immeasurably and gave Stalin de facto control over more than half of Europe. The unintended consequence of this alliance was the Cold War standoff between the Soviet Union and the United States. The ally in one conflict became the enemy in the next.
The law of unintended consequences played itself out again in events leading up to September 11. The War on Terror actually began in Afghanistan in the late 1970s. A primary focus of American policy in the 1970s was containing the Soviet Union by encircling it with a system of alliances from the northern shore of Norway to the Bering Strait. But the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 threatened to break this encirclement. The leaders of the American military concluded that they did not have sufficient forces to prevent the Soviets from moving all the way to the Indian Ocean or the Persian Gulf. So President Carter authorized the CIA to encourage and support Afghan guerillas to harass Soviet troops in Afghanistan and keep them pinned down there.
But Congress was in no mood to appropriate extra funding for the CIA, whose reputation had recently taken a beating. So the Americans approached the Saudis about funding the covert war in Afghanistan. They passed the buck to some wealthy, private families who contributed vast sums to the project. The largest and wealthiest of these families had come to be known as (can you guess it?) the "bin Laden" family. So President Carter presided over the creation of an international army of Islamic fundamentalists. And the Republican presidents who followed him continued the policy until the Soviet Union collapsed.
Enter September 11. In the aftermath of the terror attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, the White House was searching for a way to "divide and conquer" the islamic world. A natural fault line beckoned, the division between Shiite and Sunni. The Shiites are the majority in Iran and Iraq, the Sunnis dominate most other places. So by siding with the Shiites in Iraq President Bush felt that the U.S. could win points with the minority while keeping the Sunni jihadists off balance. A Shiite-dominated government in Iraq was the inevitable and predictable result of the overthrow of Saddam Hussein (a nominal Sunni).
Unintended consequence number one: The Sunnis did not take their disenfranchisement lightly, leading to an insurgency that has prevented America or the new Iraqi government from getting control over the situation in Iraq.
Unintended consequence number two: Al Qaeda entered the fray, but instead of primarily attacking US forces, the jihadists attacked Shiite mosques, restaurants and community centers. This led the Shiites to retaliate, leading to the spiraling cycle of violence and virtual civil war that we see in Iraq today. And the US Army is caught in the middle, trying to defend Iraqis of all persuasions from the various jihadists, militias and even their own government.
Unintended consequence number three: Sunni allies of the United States, like Jordan and Saudi Arabia are increasingly alarmed by the rising power of Iran. While regretting the strain on the United States that the Sunni insurgency creates, they feel that the Iraqi Sunnis are their best hope to keep the United States from cutting a deal with Iran to settle things in Iraq in a way that turns Iraq into a client state of Iran after the US forces leave.
The result is a mess. The Iraqi Sunnis never wanted the United States there in the first place, but now they are afraid of what Iran and the Shiite militias will do to their people if the US leaves. The Shiites and their Iranian allies were happy that the United States removed Saddam from power, but fear that the US will cut a deal with the Sunnis to block Shiite ambitions and now want the US to leave. The United States wants to go, but fears that leaving will put either the Iranians or the jihadists in charge of Iraq leaving America with a much worse situation than was the case when Saddam was in power. Meanwhile the Jordanians, Egyptians and Saudis fear that a spiraling cycle of Sunni-Shiite civil war will engulf Lebanon and the Palestinian territories as well as Iraq. And there is an even more nameless fear lurking; the Shiite minority in Saudi Arabia itself is largely clustered around the eastern oil fields. . .
Unintended consequences! How does the Bush administration get out of this mess without making itself more vulnerable to terrorist acts on the US mainland? Whatever the Iraq Study Group advises, the US administration will no doubt explore searching out new allies, like Iran, the Iraqi Sunnis, perhaps even al Qaeda itself (at a very covert level if at all). But whatever action the United States takes to extricate itself from this jam, remember that unintended consequences will eventually come.
Sin is a lot like that. It looks right. A beautiful client or secretary that needs to counsel with you about problems at home. An extra large house or more luxurious car that meets your needs, an attractive opportunity to get your name in lights. To take best advantage of the opportunity you let your boundaries slip just a little. It feels good. It feels right. But what Hollywood never tells you is that the sins of pride, lust, greed and power always lead to unintended consequences.
I know my cats and I are trying to learn this lesson. . .
"Sin is like that" -- That is what the Iraq War is -- sin, even before it started. One of the ten commandments says "You shall not bear false witness against your neighbor". The justification for the war was based on lies. So our government accused Iraq of having chemical weapons, then proceeded to use them on the Iraqi people. Israel has also chemical weapons, for example on Palestinian Christian refugees in Lebanon. You said "the sins of pride, lust, greed, and power always lead to unintended consequences". That perfectly describes the Iraq War.
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Dr. Paulien:
Some would argue that even _if_ President Bush made the best possible decision at the time, he still failed to do due diligence in trying to take into account possible unintended consequences. Even _if_ he did everyting right at the time, he still ended up opening a can of worms he was not prepared to handle.
Are scholars, such as yourself, who are critically re-evaluating our traditional approach to interpreting Revelation (historicism), and are finding significant deficiencies, are doing due diligence and preparing the church at large for the can of worms that will be opened?
Although you are right in your approach (IMO), are you preparing for the unintended consequences that will play out in the church at large.
For example, after reading Dr. Graeme Bradford's "More Than A Prophet" and your "The End of Historicism?" papers in the JATS, I realized that much of what I took for granted to be true turned out to be questionable.
I now realize that there were flaws in my thinking that needed correcting, and my "meta-narrative" needs serious revamping, or even replacing.
I feel as though all the chips are tossed in the air and I do not know where they will fall. I am left with the very disconcerting feeling of "Well, now what?"
While your, and Bradford's, work are important correctives for the church at large, many church members will have their chips thrown in the air.
If the church does not receive guidance in determining on where to place the falling chips (i.e., what do we replace our flawed meta-narrative with), we run the risk of having unintended consequences.
Are you, and other scholars, preparing for this? If so, How?
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This is a very good letter and I think it describes perfectly the state of our church at large concerning new information or (ideas) about passages of scripture we thought we had a handle on. I too had to reevaluate my faith when confronted with the symbolic approach to the Mark and Number of the beast as I was led into the church and a relationship with Christ through the old Vicarius Filii Dei ie, 666 interpretation of scripture.When confronted with this new approach I too found my "chips in the air" not knowing where they would fall, it was then that I realised that my faith was placed in the hands of scholars like Jon and the like and not where it should have been in our Lord and Saviour Jesus Christ.
However interesting Last Day Events are the actual order or way that they will unfold will be unknown until they happen, this does not mean that we should not study the book of Revelation for as Jon points it is a Revelation of Christ himself.
I am no biblical scholar and my major interest is in the 3 angels message of Revelation 14. In a nutshell,if we go back to the origin of Babylon we come to the Tower of Babel, which mankind built because he didn't believe God when he said that he would never flood the earth again. so in the event that God would flood the earth again they could climb to the top of the Tower and man could save himself, thus Babylon is symbolic of salvation by works.
The 3rd Angels message is to come out of that, it is an invitation to be saved in Jesus Christ through faith in Him by his merits at the cross. Consequently God's day of worship the Sabbath is a symbol of Salvation by faith and any other day is a man made day of worship and is a symbol of Salvation by works. The apostle paul had some very interesting things to say about this in Hebrews the 4th chapter, namely calling people to labour to Rest. you see the people of God haven't learned how to rest yet. As we seek a closer and more personal contact with Christ we will be led to give up on trying to fight sin, which God has never asked us to do and focus on our relationship with him in fact placing all of our effort into a relationship with him, and as we do this our characters will be transformed into his likeness he will be enabled to live his life in us and thus reach out to a perishing world because we will love others as Christ loves us.
Jon I would like to thank you for your commitmnet to studying the original languages and for bringing matters into greater light and I look forward to more of your articles and blog, may God bless you and all those who are diligently searching for truth in Jesus Christ Amen.
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Shalom. I saw your interview on 3ABN and was very impressed by your knowledge and insight but also by your humility. While I don't agree with everything about the Seventh Day Adventists I agree on many points and believe they are the best Christian channel on TV. I have always been confused by the book of revelation and usually avoided it like many Christians. However the chips may fall, the truth will set men free. I look forward to learning The book of Revelation from a fresh perspective and hope I've found a new friend in Christ. God bless you.
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Mr. Paulien,
Cats don't know as much about physics and gravity as humans do, which is why the consequences of falling into the toilet would appear unintended to it, but with humans, that excuse doesn't work. The so called unintended consequences regarding the mess that is now Iraq were fully intended from the beginning. The forces behind the New World Order have always known that they can't truly flourish in the presence of theocratic governments, and the two biggest theocracies (that have not been subjugated by the NWO) are Iran and Saudi Arabia. The Sunni/Shia tensions now existing were meant to be so that they could kill each other instead of wasting more American soldiers.
Those who have supported Mr. Bush and his war are now reaping the results of thier actions, and the law of unintended consequences will not supercede the law of cause and effect when this generation will have to answer to the God of heaven for their fully conscious decision to empower the beast of Rev. 13 (the NWO) with its 2 horns (USA and Israel).
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Wow! So you believe the US and Israel are the two horned beast. I don't know whether you're right or wrong about this since I'm not a prophet or have been given a prophetic revelation concerning this matter. But I am watching world events looking for the answer. I just want to give you something to consider. The Messiah came to save His people Israel. Israel is three things. First its a literal bloodline people and they're not whats commonly accepted today. After the sin of King Solomon God split his Kingdom, (read I Kings 11:11). The 10 northern tribes kept the name Israel, the 2 southern tribes became known as Judah. Though it can be said that all Jews are Israelites they can't legally be called by that name bibically. Second, Israel is a physical land area. And third, Israel is anyone who has accepted Jesus as their personal Savior and are grafted into the nation of Israel (Rom. 9:8). The US is the only nation that stands by the "nation" of Israel today and blesses it. Gen. 12:3 states, that he who blesses Israel will be blessed and he who curses Israel will be cursed. Is Gods own people one of the horns of the beast and is the US (ther helper and protector) the other horn of the beast of Rv. 13? I don't believe so. The "nation" of Israel surely can't be and unless the US turns against Israel they can't be either. Will God bless one of the horns of the beast?
Read your Bible and pray for understanding.
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Richard,
I have read my Bible, prayed for understanding, and have considered the subject matter you present. The evidence that bears witness to my statements can be found at the website linked to my name. America will now see just how blessed it is for supporting "Israel."
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Israel in the Bible has nothing to do with the country of Israel.The ignorant preachers (most of them) preach one in the same. This is brought about by the Jews who are in charge of the seminary. simple, simple
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The United States will not be blesse by God for supporting"Israel", the country.When God said he would bless those who blessed Israel he was talking about his white people Israel, not a bunch of deceitful Bastards that live in the newly formed "state of Israel" The rest of the world understands the state of Israel, that why every other country hates them. How can the American People be so stupid, I could explain it but the churches and ministers have brain washed the people that are supossedly Israel it would be like pissing against the wind to try to make them understand. That's why all through the Bible God talks about the remenant of his people, Israel. Ther never have been very many because of the teaching of the heathen preachers.
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The United States will not be blessed by God for supporting"Israel", the country.When God said he would bless those who blessed Israel he was talking about his white people Israel, not a bunch of deceitful Bastards that live in the newly formed "state of Israel" The rest of the world understands the state of Israel, that why every other country hates them. How can the American People be so stupid, I could explain it but the churches and ministers have brain washed the people that are supposedly Israel it would be like pissing against the wind to try to make them understand. That's why all through the Bible God talks about the remnant of his people, Israel. Their never have been very many because of the teaching of the heathen preachers.
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What is it that people don't understand about Romans chapter 11? Every since God called Abraham there has been a demon spirit that has sought to destoy the lineage that Christ would come from. Satan knew that Jesus would desroy him, thats why he tried so hard to prevent His birth. Jesus was a Jew. If people think they were cursed by God, would He himself have come to this earh from that lineage? That demon spirit is still active today in those that will let it come into their heart. Hate is a poison that destoys the posessor of it. I pray that you'll repent of that and turn your heart back to God.
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Ty first let me say that I love you in the name of our Lord. Sometimes communicating over the world wide web can be impersonal. After I sent that reply, I thought that the last sentence sounded a little to harsh, If I offended you in any way I'm sorry and I apologize. Against popular opinion at the time, I said that we have no business in Iraq and that we have just kicked a hornets nest. The evidence I use to support my statements are found in the Bible as are yours I'm sure. But its amazing that we are on opposite ends of the spectrum. I believe God will disapline America for its sins but not until He has used us to accomplish our duty to protect Israel. If it was'nt for the US there would be no Israel and we would'nt even be discussing this issue. I will read your statements with an open mind and will comment on them with you soon. God Bless
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Richard,
No need to apologize, I am not offended. Yes, America has no business in Iraq other than to subjugate it for its own interests, and America is now reaping the results of that, despite their committment to "Israel". Contrary to popular belief, Israel has never been about dirt, or family descendency; it is about those whose life is the very life of God Himself (like Jesus), that is Israel. 90+% of the people who claim to be Israelis are descendants of European Khazars that converted to Jewry in the 9th century. They are not the descendants of the people Moses led out of Egypt, and no one is going to be blessed by fighting their wars. This generation will learn the hard way that this has been the biggest scam in history.
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Ty
I read some of the information fom your website and found it very interesting. Could you tell me what denomination you belong to and are there any in Illinois.
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Richard,
The Father in heaven gave us the name, The Lord Our Righteousness, in fulfillment of Jer. 33:16. I am not aware of any people in Illinois that believe our message.
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Let me thank all of you for your responses to "Unintended Consequences." I think this discussion offers a bit of a primer to the ways people look at the Middle Eastern issues in the West. Would love to hear from a Middle Eastern perspective! Anyone there tracking with us?
Jon
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